// OPTIVER · PROBABILITY
Optiver Likelihood List Assessment: Format and Scoring
The Likelihood List is the newest module in Optiver's reported screening battery. Each item gives you three outcomes and asks you to rank them from most to least likely. It sounds gentle; the scoring is not.
The format at a glance
| Items | 15 (candidate-reported) |
|---|---|
| Time | About 90 seconds an item, roughly 22 minutes in total |
| Task | Order three outcomes from most to least likely |
| Scoring | Only the exact order scores; no partial credit for two of three |
| Penalty | No negative marking reported |
| Navigation | No going back within the section |
Train under the exact Likelihood List rules
Rank outcomes against the clock in the Likelihood Ranking drill, then sit the full Optiver-style battery.
Why exact-order scoring is brutal
Three outcomes have six possible orders, and only one scores. Getting the top item right and swapping the other two earns nothing. So you cannot rely on a rough sense of which is most likely; you need each pairwise comparison right.
With no penalty, never leave an item blank. If time runs short, commit to your best order rather than skipping.
Question mechanics
- Dice and coin events: at least one six in four rolls versus a double six in twenty-four rolls.
- Card draws with and without replacement.
- Conditional events where the base rate does the work.
- Pairs of outcomes that differ by less than a percentage point, where estimation has to be exact enough.
How to rank fast
Use complements: P(at least one) = 1 - P(none) is almost always the quickest route. Compare on a log or ratio scale when the probabilities are small. And when two outcomes are close, compute the one you are least sure of first, because that is where the order flips.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Optiver Likelihood List?
A timed module in which each item lists three outcomes and you rank them from most to least likely. Candidates report 15 items at about 90 seconds each.
Is there partial credit on the Likelihood List?
No. Only the exact order scores, as candidates report it.
Is the Likelihood List negatively marked?
No negative marking is reported, so you should always submit an order.
Related
Outcry is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by any firm named on this page. Formats are candidate-reported unless stated otherwise, and firms change them between cycles.