PRACTICE GUIDE TMG
TMG Probability & Estimation Practice Test
This guide offers probability & estimation preparation for readers interested in TransMarket Group. The general practice ranges below are not a verified assessment specification for that employer.
Those are ranges across firms running this format rather than TransMarket Group's own figures, so treat them as the shape to train against and check the instruction screen on the day for the marking rule.
These are Outcry preparation topics, not a verified current firm assessment specification. Check your role-specific invitation for the test, timing, tools and recruitment stage.
Outcry is not affiliated with TransMarket Group and has no access to their assessment content. This guide describes an assessment format that candidates report publicly; the questions here are generated by Outcry and are not TransMarket Group’s own.
What it screens
A quantitative proprietary trading and technology firm.
- ✓Expected value computed fast and used to make a decision
- ✓Conditional probability and Bayes updates without formal notation
- ✓Ranking likelihoods rather than computing them exactly
- ✓Fermi estimation: decomposing an impossible question into three easy ones
Where it sits at TransMarket Group
A quantitative proprietary trading and technology firm. The topics here are Outcry preparation suggestions, not a verified firm syllabus or recruiting stage.
Outcry also has 3 other topic guides for readers interested in TransMarket Group. Their presence does not mean applicants must sit that many tests or that they belong to one recruiting round.
The format
These are general practice ranges, not a verified current assessment specification for TransMarket Group. Check the employer’s invitation for the actual format.
| Questions | 10 to 20 |
|---|---|
| Time | 15 to 45 minutes |
| Per question | one to three minutes |
| Negative marking | Varies by firm and year |
| Answer style | Multiple choice or a typed number |
| Where it sits | Preparation topics · employer round unconfirmed |
What it tests, with a worked example
Every example below is generated by Outcry, drawn from the same question generators the timed drills run. None of them is TransMarket Group’s.
Expected value and odds
Pricing a bet, converting between odds and probabilities, and deciding whether to take it.
Example
You roll a fair die 3 times. Probability of at least one six?
- 50%
- 32.1%
- 42.1%
- 0.5%
Answer 42.1%
Complement: 1 − (5/6)^3 = 42.1%. Adding 1/6 each time double-counts.
Conditional probability
Bayes' rule in disguise: a test result, a signal, a drawn card, and what it implies.
Example
A strategy's daily returns over n days average x̄ with sample standard deviation s. Which statistic tests whether the true mean return is zero?
- x̄ / (s/√n)
- x̄·√n / s²
- (x̄ − s) / n
- x̄ / s
Answer x̄ / (s/√n)
The one-sample t-statistic divides the observed mean by its standard error s/√n. Dividing by s alone ignores how the estimate sharpens with n.
Counting and combinatorics
Arrangements, selections and the complement trick that turns a hard count into an easy one.
Example
You start with 3 chips and stake one chip at a time on a bet you win with probability 55%. You stop at 6 chips or at 0. What is the probability you reach 6?
Answer 0.646
Gambler's ruin with a drift. Write r = q/p = 0.818. Then P = (1 - r^3)/(1 - r^6) = (1 - 0.548)/(1 - 0.3) = 0.646. The fair-game answer 1/2 is what you get only when r = 1.
Distributions you should know cold
Binomial, geometric and uniform means and variances, applied rather than quoted.
Example
Stock Price Shares (m) ECHO $61.02 862 DELTA $140.56 791 BRAVO $186.09 70 CEDAR $50.57 576 ALFA $248.50 325
The index above is market-cap weighted with a divisor of 143.35 and all prices are in dollars with share counts in millions. What is the index level?
Answer 1999.995
Total market capitalisation first: $61.02 x 862 = 52,599.24, $140.56 x 791 = 111,182.96, $186.09 x 70 = 13,026.30, $50.57 x 576 = 29,128.32, $248.50 x 325 = 80,762.50, which sums to 286,699.32 million. The index is that total over the divisor: 286,699.32 / 143.35 = 1,999.995. The divisor carries no information about value, it only sets the scale so the level is a readable number and so that corporate actions do not create fake jumps. A price-weighted index of the same names would come out at 4.791 on the same divisor, which is a different index entirely.
Waiting times and repeated trials
How long until the first success, and why the answer is rarely the average you expected.
Example 1
How many digits does 50! have?
Answer 65
Stirling: log10(50!) ≈ 50·log10(50/e) + ½·log10(2π·50) = 63.23 + 1.25 = 64.48, so 65 digits.
Example 2
How many observations are needed for a 95% confidence interval of half-width 2.5, when the standard deviation is 25?
Answer 385
n = (1.96σ/w)². Call it 2: (2 × 25/2.5)² = 400, which overshoots by 4%.
Example 3
A trading floor has 40 people on it. What is the chance that at least two share a birthday, as a percentage?
Answer 89
There are C(40,2) = 780 pairs, each matching with probability 1/365. P(none) ≈ e^−2.14 ≈ 0.12, so about 88%.
Reading the question exactly
At least, exactly, and given that - the three phrases that change the answer entirely.
Example
A puts in 3,000 for 4 months and B puts in 13,000 for 9 months. They clear 33,000 of profit. What is A's share?
- 16,500
- 10,153.85
- 6,187.5
- 3,069.77
Answer 3,069.77
Profit follows capital multiplied by time. A contributes 3,000 x 4 = 12,000 and B contributes 13,000 x 9 = 117,000, so A takes 12,000 / 129,000 of 33,000 = 3,069.77.
What a good score looks like
No current employer cutoff is verified for these general practice ranges. Use the worked examples to identify what to study and check your role-specific invitation for the actual assessment rules.
How to train for it
- 01Work the standard results until they are recall, not derivation: complement, conditional, binomial mean and variance, geometric expectation.
- 02Sanity-check the magnitude before committing. A probability above one or an expectation outside the range of outcomes is a caught error, and these papers plant both as options.
- 03Work the complement first whenever the question says at least or at most. It is usually the shorter route and it is almost always the intended one.
TRAIN IT HERE
The drills that match each section
Likelihood Ranking
Order events from most to least likely - the exact screen-question format.
Fermi Estimation
Piano tuners in Chicago, atoms in a body - scored on order of magnitude.
Quitters Never Lose
A casino stopping-strategy game that is secretly a martingale lesson.
Tail Risk
Rare events and fat tails, and what they do to a plain expected-value estimate.
SIT THE FULL BATTERY
All the sections back to back on one clock, marked the way the real screen marks them, with a by-skill breakdown at the end. Included with any pass.
Also reported at TransMarket Group
Common questions
- Is the TMG probability & estimation test multiple choice?
- This guide uses multiple choice or a typed number for practice. The employer’s current answer format was not verified here.
- How long is the TMG probability & estimation test?
- This guide uses general practice ranges of 10 to 20 questions in 15 to 45 minutes. They are not a verified current employer format.
- Is there negative marking on the TMG probability & estimation test?
- It varies by firm and by year. Where a paper does mark negatively, skipping beats guessing; where it does not, answer everything. Check the instruction screen before you start - it is always stated there.
- How do I practise for it free?
- The warm-up drills are free with no account, and every pass opens the rest of the drills linked on this page. Questions are generated fresh each run, so there is nothing to memorise between attempts.