Survival Run - actuarial survival model practice
Each bar is that year’s chance of dying. They get taller with age, which is why the curve falls away faster the further the run gets.
Clearing age 65.
q = 0.012 this year. The run halts at the next checkpoint - age 66.
About Survival Run
Price a 20-year annuity from a mortality table one hurdle at a time, then absorb a longevity shock that reprices the whole book.
A cohort aged 65 collects $20,000 a year for up to 20 years, and you sold the annuity. The game animates a runner along a track of 20 hurdles - one per year of age from 65 to 84, each hurdle's height set by that year's mortality rate q from the table, which rises from 0.012 at 65 to 0.111 at 84. The distance the runner covers is the survival curve itself, shown as a live percentage.
The run halts at four checkpoints, each a numeric question with its formula and hints displayed: at year 1, the one-year survival probability p65 = 1 - q65; at year 3, the three-year survival, the product of the first three annual survival probabilities; at year 8, the expected present value of that year's payment, v^8 x 8p65 x 20,000 at a 4% annual effective rate; and at the end, the full annuity-due price, the sum over k = 0 to 19 of v^k x kp65 x 20,000. Tolerances widen with the size of the answer (0.0005, 0.0015, 60, and 900 respectively).
After the final checkpoint, news breaks: a new cardiac therapy cuts every q in the table by 25%. You priced the book on the old table, and the final question asks for the shortfall per policy - the improved-table EPV minus the priced EPV - within a tolerance of 900. Wrong checkpoint answers count as trips (tracked in the HUD) but the run continues either way; you can restart and price another cohort at the end.
Why quant interviews test this
This is core life-contingencies material - the q_x / p_x / kp_x notation, expected present values, and the annuity-due sum are the foundation of the actuarial exam sequence covering life contingencies, and interviewers for life and pensions roles expect them to be automatic. The annuity-due detail (first payment certain, sum starting at k = 0) is a favorite trap because it is a one-index error with a visible price impact.
The longevity shock is the conceptual question that follows: who is short longevity, and what happens to reserves when mortality improves? Being able to say the annuity writer loses, quantify the shortfall as the difference of two EPVs, and explain why a capped-term annuity mutes the effect relative to whole-life, is the kind of answer that shows you can connect table mechanics to balance-sheet risk.
The Survival Run guide covers how scoring works, the strategy that wins, a worked example and the mistakes most players make.
More Actuarial games
- Loss Triangle Labyrinth - Develop a run-off triangle with chain ladder link ratios, set the total reserve, and know when to switch to Bornhuetter-Ferguson.
- All Actuarial practice
- Every game guide